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Thursday 27 April 2017

Opinion

My Election Prediction - The Rise Of The Right

Paul Zanetti Friday 1 July 2016



It’s no surprise the Libs are a shoo-in to win Saturday’s poll. Turnbull played a fairly straight, steady but boring bat while Shorten looked shrill, desperate and dateless, saying ‘whatever it takes’ aimed squarely at disconnected, uninterested and uneducated voters.

The Shorten campaign relied largely on bottom-feeding at its worst, defined in one word, “Mediscare”.

Shouting “Boo!” as often as possible about something that will never happen is not a platform for the Prime Ministership.  

Consequently, this time next week Anthony ‘Albo’ Albanese will be harnessing support to topple Bill Shorten as Labor leader, if he hasn’t already got the numbers.

He who lives by the sword and all that…Shorten’s life long fantasy to be PM will be shattered this weekend. The unprincipled Shorten has only ever wanted to be PM for personal and selfish reasons, knifing and stepping on anybody in his way.

Rather than a broad vision for the future, Shorten stoops to crass overtures to the most base instincts of envy and class warfare. His contempt for voters’ intelligence is shown up by his irresponsible fiscal policies - buying votes with other people's money, piling up debt and deficit, mortgaging our kid’s future for his own personal gain, glaringly magnified by 2 years blocking budget savings he now admits are necessary in a moment of convenient pre-poll clarity.

His credibility, if he ever had any, has been terminally damaged.

Add to that, a Labor party split on border protection with strings being pulled by mobster style union puppet masters (you only need to look at the Andrews Labor government in Victoria to get a hint of how a Federal Labor government would look like), who in their right mind would vote for Shorten and his Labor mob of negligent misfits?

Shorten’s scandalous record of personal behaviour and betrayals including his affair with Chloe Bryce while he was married, and the shadow of an allegation from a young Labor volunteer from decades back, still simmer under the surface for many. If it were Tony Abbott, the ABC and associated usual suspects would have been screaming and #hashtagging for blood.

Shorten was always a dead man walking to Saturday’s election, and he and his party know it.

The rank and file never wanted Shorten as leader. The punters were shafted by the unions who wanted their fellow-mobster mate in the top job.

The Coalition will be returned in the House of Reps, but that’s not where the nation will be governed.

The power will be, as it always has been, in the Senate.

So what will the Senate look like this time around?

The double dissolution means a clean sweep. All 76 Senate seats (12 seats from each State and 2 from each Territory)  are up for grabs, instead of the usual half Senate 6 seats in each.

I’m calling Coalition losses in the Senate, meaning haemorrhaging from the parties’ right to other conservative parties.

Pauline Hanson will be a Senator. It’s unlikely she may pull others across the line. The rest of her One Nation party are made up mainly of hangers-on from way back. While Hanson promotes herself and her party as anti-Islamic, it’s clear she’s never read a verse of the Qur’an or the Hadith and Sunnah (or even knows what the last two mean). Her supporters hail her as having warned about Islam for years, which is incorrect. In her last tilt as a NSW Senator in the 2013 federal election (attracting only 1.77% of first preferences) she made no mention of Islam, nor has she mentioned Islam in her previous 20 years as a politician. Hanson, in the past, has been anti-Asian, anti-aborigine, but only in the past 12 months has she opportunistically jumped on the ‘anti-Islam’ bandwagon, working it for all she can.

Derryn Hinch will be anointed. His party is founded on Justice, but agnostic on most other issues. Hinch could best be described as a centrist who will judge each legislation on its merits. This will afford him powerful negotiation leverage in order to get up his championed national paedophile register and other changes to the legal (justice?) system.

Jacqui Lambie will get up. She’s seen in Tassie as a strong warrior for state causes, cap always in hand and a profile built on brazen threats that work in her favour. Like or dislike her, she’s seen as a rare politician with guts who tells it as she sees it, wrong or right.

Family First’s Bob Day is likely to get one seat. A conservative Senator likely to side with the government on most issues.

Glenn Lazarus has a loyal local Queensland following, a former footballer in a footy state who sticks up for the battler, the worker. Funded and supported by a number of unions. Lazza’s opposition to the Coalition’s building cop legislation contributed to the double dissolution trigger. He won’t get any others of his footy team across the finish line.

Nick Xenophon is a protectionist with strong support in his home state of South Australia, but gets little interest from other states who resent the parochial hand out mentality of the crow eaters. His NXT party is over-rated. He may get a couple across the line including himself, in the Senate, and a couple in the Lower House. He doesn’t have the broad support that Palmer had last time around. And we know how that ended.

The real surprise will be the Australian Liberty Alliance (ALA) who have a real chance of getting up to five senators, Kirralie Smith and Angry Anderson in NSW, Bernard Gaynor and Alan Biggs in Queensland and Debbie Robinson in WA. One poll shows ALA as the fourth party in Queensland, behind the Libs, ALP and Greens and ahead of One Nation and NXT.  The ALA will rob conservative votes from the Libs and Nats, they will not be new votes, per se. Malcolm Turnbull knows this, and fears them, which is why he has spent the last week of the campaign pleading for the electorate to avoid ‘minor parties’, aiming squarely at ALA, and why the Libs have preferenced ALA last, even behind the Greens, despite the ALA’s conservative policies. ALA calls for smaller, smarter government, some smart environmental policies that would make the Greens blush, and a pause in immigration from Islamic countries (long before Hanson woke up).

Polls show 25% of voters won’t vote for the two majors, Labor and the Coalition. The Greens are polling between 9% - 13%. But polling is always based on who will form government - the Lower House. 

Polling is never done for where the real power lies.

The figures for the Senate will be more widely skewed. My gauges tell me the Libs will lose Senate seats to Hanson but mostly ALA. These same voters parked their vote with Palmer the last time around, but add to that the anti-Turnbull and pro-Abbott conservatives eating into the Coalition base and the Libs have reason to be worried.

I hope I’m better at picking politics than I am at the Melbourne Cup but here’s how I see things panning out.

House Of Representatives
Coalition win by 10 seats.

Senate
Coalition - 30 seats
ALP - 25 seats
Greens - 9 seats
ALA - 5 seats
NXT - 2 seats
One Nation (Pauline Hanson) - 1 seat
Derryn Hinch - 1 seat
Family First - 1 seat
Glenn Lazarus - 1 seat
Jacqui Lambie - 1 seat

The Senate balance of power will be skewed to the right this time around, not the left as was the case in the last parliament.

Right: Coalition + ALA + Hanson + Family First + Lambie = 38
Left: Labor + Greens + Lazarus = 35
Balance: Hinch + NXT = 3

And how stupid has Malcolm Turnbull been, preferencing the Greens who the Coalition can never work with (well, except to try to get rid of the threat of minor parties), ahead of the ALA who are more likely to align with the Coalition’s conservative policies?

Doesn’t that tell you in spades where Turnbull wants to take the country after the election?

The right (aka practical common sense) is rising in Europe, the UK and the US in an assortment of forms.

The shift is on, away from the dual socialist nightmares of borderless, soft immigration and fiscal negligence.

Brexit is the new normal.